-By Muhamad Nur Iman Syah Bin Mochamat Yusuf
2023: End of the Treaty of Lausanne
Treaty of Lausanne
The Treaty of Lausanne resulted from the Turks’ dissatisfaction with the Treaty of Sevres, which was one side that divided the Ottoman Empire under the Allied Powers. Then came up the Turkish Nationalist Movement led by Mustafa Kemal to oppose the idea of the treaty, resulting in the Battle of Sakarya in 1921.
The Treaty of Lausanne is an agreement that leads to the forming of modern Turkiye under Mustafa Kemal. Contains 141 articles, signed by Ismet Inonu, delegate of Mustafa Kemal in 1923.
The main of the agreement is recognising the new border, abolishment of the Caliphate, and formation of the Turkey Republic, Syria under French and Egypt, Sudan, Iraq and Palestine under the British, and the straits between the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea which the Bosphorus Straits are declared as civilian passage and open to all shipping and Turkiye are restricted to not conducting any drilling for oil and gas activities.
With any international agreement in the world, it lasts only for 100 years. By 2023, Turkiye will be free from the tie of this agreement, and it will change the fate of the sick man of Europe.
Neo-Ottoman Empire?
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a strong man and statesman of Turkiye. He is trying to bring a new breath of modern Turkiye. A new era that was different from Mustafa Kemal. He is the new Caliph of Muslims for those seeing him as a Muslim model. However, starting his position as a modern Caliph was not easy for him.
A few times, inflation hits Turkiye, and the worst is the current high inflation rate, but the controversy under Erdogan is himself. The West has called him an undemocratic leader, an authoritarian, and a dictator. For five decades after Mustafa Kemal’s death, Turkiye’s fate had always been miserable for their state development. With Erdogan’s leadership as their prime since 2003 as Prime Minister the as President from 2014 till today which makes, he surpassed the Father of Turkiye, Mustafa Kemal.
Between 2002 and 2011, the success saw an average growth rate of 7.5% while falling achievement and interest rates boosted domestic consumption. Turkiye’s GDP reached $851 billion in 2017, an incredible achievement compared to 2002 when it was only $232 billion. In 2020 quarter two, during the lockdown, Turkiye still registered positive 1.8% growth compared to other countries. Erdogan’s leadership gained hate and love from his people with his domestic policy, which saw him as turning away from the Kemalist legacy.
Some supporters called him “Sultan”, a symbol of the Muslim Leader-Caliph, as he has listed rules banning women from wearing headscarves, tightened restrictions on alcohol sales, Hagia Sophia turned to be a mosque which was a massive symbol of Muslim history, the soft power of the Turkish film industry which catch most of the Muslim population interest especially from Arab and Pakistan a two passionate Muslim country by the series of Ertugrul.
His people love Erdogan; in 2016, a coup was attempted that marked a historical for Turkiye’s political affairs. Thousands of civilians gathered in the streets to oppose the coup, with 241 killed and 2194 injured end of the coup. This portrayed that Erdogan had full support from his people. In 2017, a referendum that recognised President’s power was approved by vote. He can control the national budget and military, have the authority to dissolve parliament, point judges, and, most importantly, extend the term limit.
What will happen next?
With the expiration of the treaty after 100 years, Turkiye will be able to conduct oil and gas activities such as drilling in the Black Sea, which Turkiye estimated the Black Sea holds 10 billion barrels of crude oil and 2 trillion cubic metrics of natural gas, collecting fees and taxes from passing ships through the Bosphorus Straits, and creating a new channel for passing vessels – in this case, the Istanbul Canal, Erdogan able to reclaim the island in the Aegean Sea.
Booming economic prosperity awaits Turkiye in 2023, the energy sector where Turkiye would no longer depend on Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran. With economic prosperity, Turkiye can rise as the region's most influential and influencing country. The rise of the new Turkiye will bring another dimension and more dynamic geopolitics, especially regarding ideology.
With the revival of Turkiye, the Muslim world are in a position to claim back its reputation. Turkiye will lead the Muslim world once again if on the right track. An interesting to watch is how Turkiye will interact with the superpower countries as a rising regional power. How will Turkiye put itself in between US and China? Will the relations with Russia be maintained? How will Turkiye lead the Muslim country, and how will Turkiye influence NATO and G20? Will Turkiye lead and assist other Muslim countries, especially in Developing-8 (D8) countries?
Will Turkiye be able to realise its dream to be a leader of Muslim countries once more as how the Caliphate fell sadly in Turkiye? It will rise proudly in Turkiye. Will Erdogan and Turkiye accomplish the fairy tale, and is it not easy to go through the reality of the world order?