Navigating Troubled Waters: The Impact of Trump 2.0 on Malaysia and Southeast Asia’s Maritime Defence
By Nor Aini Binti Mohd Nordin
Maritime Security
Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security (MiDAS)
-19th February 2025-
The re-election of President Donald Trump introduces a complex array of considerations for Malaysia and the broader Southeast Asian region, particularly concerning maritime defence and security dynamics. The anticipated policies of the Trump 2.0 administration are poised to influence regional defence postures in several key areas.
1. Intensified U.S.-China Rivalry
The Trump administration is expected to adopt a more confrontational stance toward China, especially in the South China Sea. This approach could lead to increased U.S. naval presence and freedom of navigation operations, directly impacting Malaysia's maritime interests. While such actions might deter Chinese assertiveness, they also risk escalating tensions, compelling Malaysia to navigate a delicate balance between major powers. Increased military activities may heighten the risk of accidental confrontations, adding pressure on regional defence forces to maintain heightened vigilance and readiness.
2. Maritime Security Cooperation and Capacity Building
Malaysia has historically benefited from U.S. assistance in enhancing its maritime domain awareness and defence capabilities. This includes the transfer of equipment, joint military exercises, and intelligence sharing. Under Trump 2.0, such collaborations could expand, potentially including acquisitions of advanced U.S. military equipment, such as legacy F-18 fighter aircraft and systems for new fighters from South Korea. Continued collaboration could bolster Malaysia's maritime defence posture and capacity to monitor territorial waters, particularly in the disputed South China Sea. However, closer defence ties with the U.S. may also attract scrutiny from China, requiring Malaysia to carefully navigate its foreign policy and maintain a neutral stance.
3. Regional Defence Dynamics and Alliances
The U.S. is likely to strengthen defence ties with key Southeast Asian nations, notably the Philippines and Vietnam, as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China's influence. While Malaysia maintains a non-aligned stance, it could face indirect pressures to align more closely with U.S. strategic objectives. This may complicate Malaysia’s regional relationships and defence strategies, as it seeks to balance its security needs with its commitment to ASEAN’s principle of neutrality. Additionally, enhanced U.S.-Philippines military cooperation could shift the balance of power in the South China Sea, affecting Malaysia’s strategic calculations.
4. ASEAN Cohesion and Maritime Collaboration
The administration's preference for bilateral engagements over multilateral frameworks may challenge ASEAN's unity and collective security initiatives. As the 2025 ASEAN chair, Malaysia faces the challenge of maintaining regional cohesion while managing great power rivalries. This could complicate efforts to foster regional maritime cooperation and present a unified stance on South China Sea disputes. Malaysia may need to leverage its leadership to promote confidence-building measures, joint patrols, and information sharing within ASEAN to enhance regional maritime security.
5. Impact on Maritime Law Enforcement and Counter-Piracy Efforts
Increased U.S. involvement in regional maritime security could boost efforts to combat piracy, illegal fishing, and transnational crimes in the Malacca Strait and surrounding waters. Enhanced cooperation with U.S. coast guard and naval forces could improve Malaysia's ability to safeguard critical sea lanes. However, U.S. prioritization of military competition with China might shift focus away from non-traditional security threats, leaving gaps for regional stakeholders to address.
6. Technological Cooperation and Maritime Surveillance
The Trump administration's emphasis on defence sales and technology transfers could open opportunities for Malaysia to acquire advanced surveillance systems, drones, and maritime patrol aircraft. Such capabilities would enhance Malaysia's ability to monitor and protect its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, reliance on U.S. technology may come with conditions that limit operational flexibility or require alignment with U.S. strategic interests.
In conclusion, President Trump's second term presents both opportunities and challenges for Malaysia's maritime defence posture. While increased U.S. engagement could bolster regional security capabilities and counterbalance Chinese assertiveness, it also risks escalating tensions and complicating Malaysia’s balancing act between major powers. To safeguard its maritime interests, Malaysia must pursue a pragmatic approach—leveraging defence partnerships while reinforcing ASEAN unity and regional cooperation. Proactive engagement and strategic foresight will be essential for Malaysia to navigate evolving geopolitical currents and uphold its maritime sovereignty in an increasingly contested region.