-By I'zzet Daniel Bin Muhammad Haikal Puventharan  

AUKUS, a disguised United States foreign policy?

The inception of AUKUS marked an important juncture in geopolitical dynamics, heralding a significant shift in the Asia-Pacific’s regional security structure. AUKUS is a trilateral pact between three countries, Australia, United Kingdom and the United States. This geopolitical strategic synergy is characterised through shared values, exchange of technological expertise and commitment towards boosting security capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2021, leaders of the countries officially formed the trilateral defence pact, aimed to help Australia to develop its own nuclear-powered submarines (Aulia et al, 2022). It is expected that the pact would help the United States and its allies to increase collective security capabilities and simultaneously reduce China’s expansion plans in the Asia Pacific region. Though, it could be interpreted as a political and military coalition instead of solely a security pact (Mickiewicz, 2023).

The United States stands to gain significant benefits, exchange of technology contributes to the reimagining of American tradition and through AUKUS, the United States has a tool in its possession to maintain the existing system since World War II. Deterrence led by the American regime has allowed more $2 million trade to flow through between Asia Pacific and the United States, particularly valuable technologies like computer chips manufactured in countries affected by policies of certain major powers. However, failure to safeguard trade routes and mitigate disruptions in the region would prove burdensome for the Americans as prices will surge and contribute to inflation (Lies, 2024).

The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union allowed itself to thirst for new markets, making AUKUS a great opportunity for the UK to play an important role in the Asia Pacific region. In 2023, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced an additional £5bn to modernise UK’s nuclear capability and AUKUS submarine program. Furthermore, thousands of jobs will be created, improving 60 years of British expertise on designing and operating nuclear-powered submarines. Potential lucrative markets in the fields of ship building, cutting edge technology and nuclear research expertise are bound to benefit and expand in this region (Tobin, 2024).

From Australia's standpoint, AUKUS presents a pivotal opportunity to enhance its security capabilities significantly. The acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines signifies Australia’s commitment towards its defence capability. It is expected that with billions invested in Australia’s defence industry, it will create around 20,000 jobs over the next 30 years and therefore allowing the country to establish new industries while simultaneously making breakthroughs in the realm of science, technology and cyber expertise (Lee et al, 2023). This strengthened naval capacity enables Australia to better counterbalance China's military prowess and resist economic coercion. This mutually beneficial partnership promises to fortify not only Australia's security posture but also its technological and industrial advancement.

The Formation of the AUKUS pact does not bode well with China as the existence of AUKUS disrupts regional stability and will to some extent encourage an arms race in this region especially among emerging powers who have interest in this region. In addition, AUKUS may well be the start of a new cold war pioneered by the United States against China and the use and transfer of nuclear technology in this region could increase tensions, therefore such decisions place major powers in this region in an uncomfortable position.

In ASEAN, states are divided over the presence of AUKUS in the region. For instance, the  Philippines endorses AUKUS as it faces pressure from Beijing over the disputed South China Sea, foreign secretary Teodoro Locsin welcomes AUKUS as opposed to Philippines’ President Duterte expresses concerns over potential arms race. In addition, Singapore  views AUKUS optimistically with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong stating that it would contribute to the stability of the region (Grossman, 2023). Countries like Malaysia and Indonesia raised its concerns over the prospect of new weapons of mass destruction in the region, such sentiments is widely shared by Vietnam and Thailand. Though these countries expect Australia and its partners to abide by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) protocols (Tyler, 2022).

What does the future hold?

This partnership is a demonstration of the United States commitment towards the security and maintaining her interest in Asia pacific. The trilateral security partnership may include other states in Asia-Pacific in the near future. For instance, New Zealand is currently gathering enough information and actively debating on its potential participation in regards to developing advanced military technology in areas like artificial intelligence etc. Furthermore, the United States dearest ally, Japan could potentially join the security pact on the grounds to develop advanced technologies due to its close partnership in regards to defence with the respective countries. The rationale behind the security partnership conclusively is to maintain an effective deterrence to other contending major powers in the region.

 

 

Written by H

 

References
Aulia, J, D. Sahide, A. (2022). Regional Stability Rivalry in the Indo Pacific Region: China's Interests in Responding the AUKUS Trilateral Pact. International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding. V. 9(9), 412-423. https://ijmmu.com/index.php/ijmmu/article/view/4149
Cheng, M. (2022). AUKUS: The Changing Dynamic and Its Regional Implications. European Journal of Development Studies. V 2(1). http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejdevelop.2022.2.1.63
Grossman, D. (2023). Why China Should Worry About Asia’s Reaction to AUKUS. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/12/aukus-china-indo-pacific-asia-submarines-geopolitics/
Lies, E. (2024). Why America Needs AUKUS. THE NATIONAL INTEREST. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-needs-aukus-210444
Lee, P, K. Nason, A. Mayo, S. (2023). The Social Licence for AUKUS has not yet been earned. The Interpreter. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/debate/aukus-risks-rewards
Mickiewicz, P. (2023). AUKUS AS AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO THE PROSPECTIVE LIMITATION OF AMERICAN DOMINATION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC. Torun International Studies. 1(18), 25-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/TIS.2023.011
Tobin, J. (2024). AUKUS security partnership. UK Parliament. https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/aukus-security-partnership/
Tyler, M, C. (2022). Has Southeast Asia warmed to AUKUS one year on? . The Interpreter. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/has-southeast-asia-warmed-aukus-one-year
Zhang, J. (2022). China and AUKUS: Growing Tensions Ahead. Australian Institute of International Affairs. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/china-and-aukus-growing-tensions-ahead/