-By Elisa Shafiqah binti Shahrilnizam  

Heightened Nuclear Risks & Proliferation - Spillover to ASEAN?

With recent news of Moscow upgrading its nuclear arsenals to be prepared for potential nuclear conflict and NATO members conducting response exercises on Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNe), nuclear proliferation has reached unprecedented heights in the West since the post-Cold War era. Although Malaysia and its Southeast Asian neighbours are geographically distant from these tensions, the repercussions are palpable, posing significant challenges to the region's security and stability.

In light of the upcoming 2024-2025 elections, nuclear policy debates among Western presidential candidates are intensifying, revealing stark contrasts in their approaches and potentially significant impacts on international security strategies and policies. President Biden is currently grappling with the dilemma of whether to allow Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to strike targets within Russia, balancing the strategic benefits against the grave risk of escalation with a nuclear-armed adversary. Meanwhile, in the UK, Labour's Prime Minister candidate Keir Starmer is staunchly supporting the maintenance and renewal of the UK's nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, explicitly stating his willingness to use nuclear weapons if necessary — an assertive stance that marks a departure from his predecessor's more pacifist position.

Additionally, several NATO countries are expressing intentions to host nuclear weapons, further complicating the security landscape and raising concerns about the proliferation and potential deployment of nuclear arms in Europe. The politicisation of nuclear issues in these electoral debates underscores the critical need for a nuanced understanding and careful handling of nuclear policies. Missteps could exacerbate global and regional tensions, particularly as nations navigate the fine line between deterrence and provocation in an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment.

Furthermore, the Federation of American Scientists released issues under its Nuclear Notebook database mentioning several nuclear-armed states modernising their arsenals in various ranges, ballistics projection, explosion capability and more. In this context, Southeast Asian countries might feel compelled to enhance their own military capabilities, not necessarily by acquiring nuclear weapons but by increasing conventional forces and developing advanced defence systems as we can see the increase of US$22.9 billion of military budget over the span of 21 years by Southeast Asian nations, as reported by SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2023. This reactive militarization can lead to heightened regional instability, as nations seek to counter perceived threats, making diplomatic resolutions more challenging and increasing the risk of miscalculations or unintended escalations.

The regional security architecture, particularly the 1971 Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) and the 1995 Bangkok Treaty on the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (SEANWFZ), faces a critical test in this current climate. Despite a history of relative stability, Southeast Asia is now confronted with increased tension and military build-up by Western powers and their major allies in the Asia-Pacific. The escalation of nuclear posturing — where countries demonstrate their nuclear capabilities and readiness to use them as a deterrent — threatens to destabilise the power balance within Asia. This nuclear posturing often involves activities such as conducting military exercises, deploying strategic bombers and submarines, and publicising advancements in missile technology. These actions are intended to signal strength and resolve to potential adversaries but can also provoke similar responses, leading to an arms race.

Moreover, recent developments in the collaboration between China and Russia to build nuclear power plants, possibly extending into outer space, add another layer of complexity to the regional security landscape. This outer space rivalry and advancements in space-based nuclear technologies could further escalate tensions, affecting Southeast Asia’s peacebuilding efforts. The strategic positioning of nuclear power plants and the militarization of space by these major powers could introduce new vulnerabilities and threats to the region

The militarization of outer space can have significant impacts on day-to-day operations on Earth. Space-based assets, such as satellites, play crucial roles in communication, navigation, weather forecasting, and global positioning systems (GPS). If these assets become targets in a militarised outer space, it could lead to widespread disruptions be it within the diplomatic or day-to-day operations. The destruction or disabling of communication and GPS satellites could hamper internet services, mobile networks, and international broadcasting, affecting everything from communications, business operations, particularly banking and maritime navigation. Weather forecasting services, which rely heavily on satellite data, could become less accurate, impacting agriculture, disaster preparedness, and everyday activities. Additionally, the presence of nuclear power plants in space raises concerns about potential accidents or the weaponization of nuclear technology, which could result in the release of radioactive materials or the development of space-based weapons, further escalating global tensions and leading to an arms race in space.

In addition to state-level proliferation, concerns about nuclear proliferation to non-state actors are intensifying. The possibility of nuclear proliferation in Southeast Asia, whether through direct acquisition or covert proliferation networks, presents a grave threat to regional and global security. Nuclear terrorism, once considered a distant threat, is now more immediate, with the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute recording 80 incidents involving the smuggling or trafficking of weapons of mass destruction in the past decade.

To address these multifaceted challenges, Southeast Asian nations must take proactive measures. Firstly, diplomatic efforts should be intensified to promote dialogue and confidence-building among nuclear powers through forums like the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS). Investing in regional security arrangements will enhance collective security and crisis management capabilities within Southeast Asia by building trust and transparency in various scope of contemporary threats. For instance, the ARF could develop specific protocols for nuclear risk reduction and establish a nuclear non-proliferation working group to monitor and mitigate proliferation activities. Similarly, the EAS could serve as a platform for high-level dialogue on nuclear disarmament and regional security cooperation.

To mitigate the risks posed by external nuclear tensions, it is crucial to strengthen cooperation among regional powers by implementing stronger export controls, enhancing border security measures, and adhering to international norms such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and the protocols of the Bangkok Treaty. Southeast Asian nations should enhance their capabilities in nuclear forensics and counter-proliferation by investing in advanced technology, training security personnel, and collaborating with international agencies specialising in nuclear security. Building a robust counter-proliferation framework will help safeguard the region against threats from non-state actors and illicit networks. We also need to address the socio-political dimensions of nuclear proliferation by engaging civil society, academia, and the media in discussions about nuclear risks and security can foster a more informed and resilient public. Lastly, education on nuclear safety and security are also essential for building a culture of awareness and preparedness.

In conclusion, the ongoing nuclear tensions serve as a reminder of the enduring threat posed by nuclear weapons in the 21st century. While these tensions are thousands of kilometres away, their effects are felt in regions as distant as Southeast Asia. As the region's strategic position and its commitment to peace and neutrality place it at a crossroads, this requires careful navigation to maintain stability. By enhancing regional security frameworks, strengthening cooperation, and fostering a culture of awareness and preparedness, Southeast Asia can effectively address the complex challenges posed by nuclear proliferation. Southeast Asian nations can play a crucial role in mitigating the risks of nuclear proliferation, avoiding the one miscalculation away from nuclear apocalypse and eventually ensuring a stable and secure future for the region.